What could be in store for the fine wine market in 2020? A natural uprising? An Italian renaissance? Is 2019 Bordeaux already in trouble? Will South American labels benefit from anti-EU tariffs?
Many are continuing trends but some are really starting to accelerate. The broadening of the market has been happening for a while but it really stepped up a gear in 2019 with 6,367 wines traded on the Liv-ex Exchange from 995 brands.
Bordeaux is seeing its overall market share declining, Burgundy’s fast track is running out of road, Italy and Champagne are rising and ‘natural’ wines are coming.
Much, therefore, is the same but there is a feeling that some winds of change are in the air and 2020 will pose its own opportunities and challenges.
US tariffs on European wines seem set to widen, the Hong Kong market is in recession and the UK is on the brink of some sort of Brexit. All three markets are the primary engines of fine wine buying and investment scene which could prove a major handicap.
Nonetheless, as Liv-ex remarked at the end of its recent report, the shape and nature of the secondary market at present arguably leaves it better prepared than before to face up to the strong headwinds it faces.
Liv-ex said: “The market has become broader and deeper, putting it on a firm footing to meet the challenges of the year ahead. Regional price performances and market shares will vary according to the fundamentals presented to those with an interest in fine wine. Regions, somewhat overlooked in the past, will likely continue to emerge.”
That said, the choppy conditions at the end of this year can be expected to continue into certainly the first quarter if not the first half of 2020 so anticipate a more bearish outlook for the foreseeable future.
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